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2025–2026 / quant · data

Classical vs ML Portfolio Optimization

Comparing allocation paradigms on risk and return.

An educational comparison of mean-variance methods and ML-assisted return forecasts.

  • Python
  • pandas
  • SciPy
  • scikit-learn
  • yfinance

01 / PROBLEM STATEMENT

Why this work exists

Classical allocation relies on historical moments, while forecast-assisted allocation adds model risk. The project compares both ideas within one educational workflow.

Data and source material

  • Historical market data retrieved with yfinance
  • Processed return series for portfolio construction
  • Generated portfolio weights and risk/return analytics

02 / SOLUTION OVERVIEW

From input to usable output

Compare efficient-frontier allocation with ML-assisted strategies using common analytics.

  1. 01

    Load and preprocess historical prices

  2. 02

    Construct mean–variance and efficient-frontier portfolios

  3. 03

    Train return-forecasting models

  4. 04

    Generate ML-assisted allocations

  5. 05

    Compare return, volatility, and Sharpe analytics

03 / TECHNICAL ARCHITECTURE

Implemented components

Documented component map
01

Market data → preprocessing → classical/ML branches → common evaluation

Diagram synthesized from the pinned repository documentation; it is explanatory, not a runtime topology capture.

04 / METHODOLOGY & IMPLEMENTATION

Decisions that shape the system

  • SciPy supports constrained mean–variance optimization.
  • scikit-learn models supply experimental return forecasts.
  • A common analytics layer compares classical and forecast-assisted allocations.

Implemented capabilities

  • Mean-variance
  • Efficient frontier
  • Return forecasting
  • Sharpe and volatility

05 / RESULTS & EVIDENCE

What the source supports

  • The repository documents implemented classical and ML-assisted branches.
  • It does not publish a tracked, date-bounded out-of-sample result table, so no performance advantage is claimed.

Results preserve the repository’s units, evaluation framing, and stated limitations. Missing evidence is not converted into a claim.

06 / CHALLENGES & LIMITATIONS

Where the evidence stops

  • The README does not establish chronological evaluation or trading-cost treatment.
  • Future-work items such as Black–Litterman, reinforcement learning, deep learning, and regime switching are not represented as implemented.

07 / WHAT THIS DEMONSTRATES

Engineering signal

A comparative implementation of allocation paradigms and the discipline to withhold performance conclusions when tracked evidence is absent.

08 / SOURCE & RELATED WORK

Trace the evidence

Audited files

README.md · scripts/ · visualisation/